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KMID : 0387320220320010073
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Korean Journal of Health Policy and Administration
2022 Volume.32 No. 1 p.73 ~ p.93
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Development of a Demand Model for Physician Workforce Projection on Regional Inequity Problem in Korea Using System Dynamics
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Lee Gyeong-Min
Yoo Ki-Bong
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Abstract
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Background: Appropriate physician workforce projection through reasonable discussions and decisions with a broad view on supplyand demand of the workforce, thus, is very important for high-quality healthcare services. The study expects to provide preliminaryresearch data on the workforce diagnosis standard model for Korean physician workforce policy decision through more flexible andobjective physician workforce projection in reflection of diverse changes in healthcare policy and sociodemographic environments.
Methods: A low flow rate through the causal map was developed, and an objective workforce demand projection from 2019 to 2040was conducted. In addition, projections by scenarios under various situations were conducted with the low flow rate developed in thestudy. Lastly, the demand projection of the physician workforce by region of 17 cities and provinces was conducted.
Results: First, demand of physicians in 2019 was 110,665, 113,450 in 2020, 129,496 in 2025, 146,837 in 2030, 163,719 in 2035, and179,288 in 2040. Second, the scenario for the retirement of baby boomers led to a decrease in the growth rate due to time delay.
Third, Seoul and Gyeonggi-do account for a high percentage of demand, a very high upward trend was identified in Gyeonggi-do, andas a result, the projection showed that the demand of the physician workforce in Gyeonggi-do would worsen over time.
Conclusion: This study is meaningful in that rational and collective physician workforce supply and demand and its imbalance inworkforce distribution were verified through various projections by scenarios and regions of Korea with System Dynamics.
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KEYWORD
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Physician workforce, Demand, System dynamics, Projection, Stock and flow diagram
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